CBB Midseason Review: The Notebook Is Back
We're back just in time to check in at the halfway point of the season.
College basketball has seen a resurgence of sorts.
The non-conference slate might have been the best I’ve seen in a decade. The start of conference play has been chaotic. The powers at the top of the mountain are scary. Mid-Major basketball is peak cinema.
Our sport is thriving.
Instead of going on a long tangent about numbers, I figure it best to take a look back at some of the biggest surprises, disappointments, and stories as we cross the halfway point of the season. I’ll have a Study Guide piece for the weekend slate later this week.
Auburn is clearly the team to beat…
This might be the most complimentary roster in the country. No seriously, the Tigers have zero flaws.
All-American center and NPOY candidate Johni Broome has been virtually unstoppable. He’s missed the last two games due to injury, but that hasn’t slowed Auburn down (yet). They’re still the only unbeaten team in the SEC. Veteran Chad Baker-Mazara holds a 67.5% true shooting percentage as a true triple threat. 5-star freshman Tahaad Pettiford has been stellar against elite competition. Denver Jones, Miles Kelly, Dylan Cardwell… there is efficiency, athleticism, and strength at every position.
It’s translated to wins - 10 against Quad 1 competition - on arguably the toughest schedule Auburn has played in program history. Bruce Pearl & Co. have already beaten Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina, Memphis, Ohio State, Purdue, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Georgia. It’s going to be hard to beat Auburn…
…And the team that did has a star
Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils got out of Cameron Indoor with an 84-78 win over Auburn in December. For all we know, it was a preview of the National Championship. Flagg, who is projected to go No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, has only continued to get better. He has an NBA-ready frame, phenomenal defensive chops, and an improving jump shot. In fact, Flagg’s true shooting percentage has skyrocketed from 59.2% to 70.6% in ACC play, which is good for third nationally. His KenPom comps are Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon, Kevin Knox, and Brandon Ingram. Boys, he’s pretty good. So is Duke, the best team in college basketball according to KenPom.
The Blue Devils have what most analytics sites say is the second-best defense in the country (I think it’s the best) and the third-best offense. They have height, physicality, and great outside shooting. Every player in Duke’s rotation is 6-foot-5 or taller. They have throttled every team in sight since beating Auburn and (probably) won’t lose another game in the regular season barring a meltdown on the road. It’s a pretty weak remaining schedule with only three Quad 1 opportunities. Flagg should continue to have his way.
The SEC is the best conference in America…
Horrifying. Absolutely horrifying.
The SEC is by far the best conference in the country, boasting a Net rating of +20.98 (KenPom). The second-closest conference is the Big Ten at +17.65. Nine teams are ranked in the top 30 on KenPom. Four of the top five offenses and six of the top 20 defenses play in the SEC.
The gap is visible not just from a metrics standpoint, but also noticeable on the court as well. The SEC had 21 wins against ranked teams in non-conference play, which is the most ever by a conference before the postseason according to ESPN. The league shellacked the ACC 14-2 in the second annual SEC/ACC challenge during that dominant non-con run.
Conference play has been no joke, either. 10 teams currently qualify as Quad 1 wins… at home. Over half of the league could march into your arena on a given weekday as a potential Q1 win. 13 teams would be a Q1 team at a neutral site. I’ve never seen the league this strong in my lifetime. I don’t know if anyone has.
…But don’t look away from what’s happening in the Big 10 and Big 12
I’d like to take a moment to appreciate just how good these two conferences still are.
Houston plays basketball like they’re a team full of Martians. Their defense is other-worldly. They’ve been like this for a while now. They don’t need oxygen. The Fertitta Center has none. Opponents aren’t able to breathe from the opening tip to the final buzzer.
Iowa State plays a similar brand of ball, led by the extremely impressive trio of Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones, and Tamin Lipsey. West Virginia is balling without Tucker DeVries. Javon Small is simply him. Texas Tech is insanely good offensively. Arizona is bouncing back after a rough start to the year. Kansas… exists.
I’ll talk about Michigan State a little later on, but man, have they been fun to watch. Purdue is still clicking without Edey, Michigan is back to relevance underneath Dusty May (with two seven-footers leading the charge!), Wisconsin and Illinois are quality as always, and Oregon quietly has the second-most Quad 1 wins in the country.
Oh, and if you get a chance, watch some Iowa basketball. Unlike their football counterpart, the Hawkeyes fly up and down the floor, score in bunches, and play absolutely no defense whatsoever.
These two leagues are so much fun night in and night out.
Mark Pope and Pat Kelsey have revitalized basketball in Kentucky
Remember when Louisville used to suck? Those days are long gone.
Pat Kelsey has moved over from the College of Charleston and completely revitalized the Cards, who might not have the most talented team, but their experience and aggressive offense make them a serious dark horse come tournament time. Louisville hasn’t had a 20-win season since 2019-2020, and they’re on pace to do so now - albeit through a weak ACC.
Kentucky has had zero tournament success in half a decade. That could be subject to change in March.
Mark Pope, formerly BYU’s head coach and team captain of Kentucky’s 1995-96 national title team, has given Big Blue Nation a shot in the arm that they desperately needed. His high-octane offense and analytical approach to the game have made the Wildcats fun again. After John Calipari left for Arkansas last spring, Pope was left with zero returning scholarship players and one high school recruit. Much like Kelsey, who also started from scratch, Pope put together a 12-man roster in about a month and a half. While the Cats haven’t been phenomenal defensively, they still boast arguably the second-best collection of wins outside of Auburn - victories over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M were extremely impressive.
Will the early success translate in the NCAA tournament for Kelsey and Pope? Who knows. One thing is for certain: Both programs are heading in the right direction, and people are taking notice.
We’ve seen this coming, John Calipari
Speaking of Calipari… the downfall isn’t surprising. Sure, 0-5 to start SEC play is a little shocking. But if you’ve been actively watching Kentucky for the last several years, Cal’s undoing has been happening for a while.
It starts in the simplest of places: coaching. That might sound like a broad strokes term and an unwarranted shot. But when it comes to actually teaching and coaching the sport - game management, X’s & O’s - Calipari has struggled. Especially as of late. A recruiter and a motivator, he absolutely is. But his uber-talented rosters have been what’s carried him for several years now. At least, until tournament time. Games were won through athleticism and want-to. Calipari hasn’t been able to schematically lead his team out of tight contests since the 2019 season. Most of Kentucky’s frustrations bubbled up in the postseason. Now at Arkansas, his struggles are being exposed in the middle of the schedule.
The Hogs currently rank 90th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. He’s had three teams finish outside of the top 40 in just three of his 25 seasons as a Division I head coach (2021-20 UK, 2004-05 Memphis, 2000-01 Memphis). Arkansas is 11-7. This time last year, they were 10-8. The coach has changed. The talent on the roster has changed. But the results have not.
The 11-7 record and 0-5 start in conference play can be explained. It’s the combination of a new environment, the SEC fielding its most dominant conference top to bottom to date, a recruiting class that frankly was not inspiring despite its national rank, and a transfer portal class that wasn’t nearly as good as advertised (as someone who covers Kentucky, I could have told you the additions of DJ Wagner/Adou Thiero/Zvonimir Ivisic weren’t great ones).
Add those factors in with Calipari’s coaching struggles, and you get a team that hasn’t won a game since December. Does that change tomorrow against Georgia? We shall see. One thing needs to be made clear, however: This did not happen to Calipari overnight. This was not only coming but it’s been happening for at least three seasons now.
Have you tried unplugging it and plugging it back in, UConn?
As I’m typing this, Dan Hurley just yelled at an official, saying “Don’t turn your back on me, I’m the best coach in the f***ing sport.” Butler just took a 65-64 lead - their first of the game - with four minutes left at 13-5 UConn.
It doesn’t need to be said, but if Hurley is the best coach in the sport, why are the Huskies 13-5 and losing to 8-10 Butler at home?
Efficiency-wise, this is Hurley’s worst defense since his first season as a head coach at Wagner in 2011. With how talented UConn is, it’s hard to believe they’ve taken the losses they have (Colorado, Dayton, Villanova, etc). So what gives? Why are the back-to-back national champions struggling so much?
I don’t have a great answer for it. Maybe the computer’s been on for too long. UConn might need to hit the restart button.
Utah State keeps getting away with it!
Mid-Major basketball is beautiful for its imperfections. The cream of the crop might not be as elite analytically, but man, are they fun to watch. One of the best MM schools of the last three years has been Utah State, who are 16-2 and racing towards their third-straight NCAA tournament appearance with their third different head coach in as many seasons!
They’ve won all three of their Quad 1 opportunities and will likely battle New Mexico for the regular season Mountain West title. This is an underrated team in an underrated conference. Watch the Aggies when they pop up on Fox Sports or CBS Sports.
Out with the new, in with the old
Maybe this isn’t much of a note, but I’m just happy some of the late 2000s/early 2010s powerhouses are having strong years. Duke, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan State, Marquette, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Louisville, West Virginia… I just wish Syracuse and Ohio State could step things up a bit.
Things are shaping up for a fun NCAA tournament.