Study Guide (1/23/25): Let's Get Down To Business
Note to self: Don’t drink coffee before trying to type up a newsletter. Hands get a little too shaky.
The College Notebook is officially back for the second half of the college basketball season, and the timing couldn’t be more perfect. If you want my thoughts on the biggest storylines of the season up until this point, you can find them here.
A bit of a refresher before we dive in… I’ll be releasing a Study Guide for the weekend slate every Thursday/Friday through the end of the tournament in April. I’ll go in depth on five games that I personally find important to watch, and then I’ll add some honorable mentions at the end.
Let’s get down to business.
Xavier (12-8) vs UConn (14-5) (7:00 PM CT | FOX)
Players to Know:
F Alex Karaban (UConn): 15.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG
G Hassan Diarra (UConn): 8.9 PPG, 6.7 APG
F Zach Freemantle (Xavier): 16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG
G Ryan Conwell (Xavier): 16.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG
Concepts and Clashes
Free Throw Shooting
The Musketeers get to the line often. UConn fouls the life out of their opponents. Xavier ranks 60th nationally in free throw attempts per game, 50th in free throw rate, and 19th in free throw percentage (78.5%). The Huskies rank 323rd in fouls per game (19.1) and 343rd in opponent free throw rate. That, my friends, will likely decide the ball game.
3-Point Shooting
That and the perimeter. Xavier and UConn rank second and third respectively in the Big East in 3-point percentage. The Musketeers are doing a much better job of guarding the 3-point line in conference play, holding BE opponents to 29.5%, opposed to UConn’s 37.6%.
Study Question
Xavier forward Zach Freemantle is playing his fifth season for the Musketeers. Which Big East opponent has he played the most minutes against?
Study Tips
Xavier ranks second nationally in experience. Their average player has been has in college for 3.51 years.
UConn’s adjusted defensive efficiency is 104.9. That’s Dan Hurley’s worst mark since his first season as a D1 head coach in 2011 (Wagner).
Xavier swept UConn 2-0 in 2023 before being swept 3-0 last season.
All five of the Huskies’ losses have come vs teams outside the top 30 on KenPom.
Hurley believes he’s “the best coach in the f***ing sport.” So there’s that.
The Musketeers need this win to get onto the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble (currently next four out).
Wake Forest (15-4) vs Duke (16-2) (3:30 PM | ESPN)
Players to Know:
Cooper Flagg (Duke): 19.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG
Hunter Sallis (WF): 19.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG
Conceps and Clashes
Defense
This will be the fifth-best defense the Blue Devils have seen all year. Wake ranks 29th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency - they do a little bit of everything, too. Low shooting percentages, high turnover rate, blocks, steals, low free throw rate… this will be a bit of a challenge for Duke, who rank second in the country in defensive efficiency.
Iso Ball vs Distribution
Duke ranks second in the ACC in assist rate and does a great job of spreading the ball around. Inside out basketball that gets a lot of looks/points from deep. It’s a pretty smooth operation. Wake is the complete opposite. 17th in the conference in assist rate, 319th in 3-point distribution (just 25.5% of their points come from behind the arc - Duke gets 38.6%).
Study Question
Duke’s KenPom NET rating is +36.72. When is the last time a team finished the season with a higher rating?
Study Tips
The Demon Deacons have won their last two matchups against Duke in Winston-Salem.
Cooper Flagg’s KenPom POTY rating is 2.749, the highest since Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky in 2014-15 (2.794).
Wake Forest is the only Power Six team with 15+ wins that ranks outside of the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency. In fact, the next closest team is Georgetown, who is 13-6.
Wake desperately needs this win to get back onto the NCAA tournament bubble.
Auburn (17-1) vs Tennessee (17-2) (7:30 PM | ESPN)
Players to Know:
Chad Baker-Mazara (AUB): 13.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG
Tahaad Pettiford (AUB): 12.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG
Chaz Lanier (UT): 18.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
Concepts and Clashes
Do You Even Hack, Bro?
Tennessee does a phenomenal job of playing suffocating defense without fouling. They rank first in the SEC in opponent free throw rate. Auburn, on the other hand, ranks 217th nationally in fouls per game and puts their opponents on the line quite a bit.
Forcing Bad Shots
Auburn will not let you shoot a three. Not happening. They rank 14th nationally in 3PA allowed per game (18.8). Tennessee will let you take as many as you like - 26.3 per game, to be exact (333rd nationally).
Both of these teams force a lot of bad shots, just in very different ways.
Study Question
When is the last time Tennessee won at Auburn?
Study Tips
Auburn will likely be without All-American center Johni Broome.
Tennessee is averaging 68.2 PPG vs teams inside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency (this number is brought down a bit by their 43-point performance vs Florida).
This is the second-slowest team Bruce Pearl has fielded at Auburn, ranking 163rd nationally in adjusted tempo.
Tennessee plays a pretty short bench (332nd in bench minutes), while Auburn runs pretty deep (62nd).
Arizona State (11-7) vs Iowa State (16-2) (1:00 PM CT | ESPN+)
Players to Know:
Curtis Jones (ISU): 17.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG
Keshon Gilbert (ISU): 15.7 PPG, 4.9 APG
BJ Freeman (ASU): 13.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG
Jayden Quaintance (ASU): 10.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG
Concepts and Clashes
Controlling The Rim
Iowa State has attacked the rim with consistency all season while seeing a major boost in efficiency. All with essentially the same personnel as last year! The Sun Devils have struggled to finish inside the arc, shooting sub-50% in Big 12 play.
Second-Chance Opportunities
Arizona State has become much more aggressive on the offensive glass in conference games, jumping from 28.9% to 32.9% in offensive rebound percentage. The Cyclones have jumped a bit as well, going from 34.6% to 36.1% in league play. Both teams have the height and physicality to crash the glass.
Turnovers
Arizona State ranks 14th in the Big 12 in offensive turnover rate while Iowa State ranks second in the conference in defensive turnover rate. Will likely be a major problem for the Sun Devils.
Study Question
The Big 12 currently ranks as the third-best conference according to KenPom. When was the last time the league wasn’t ranked first?
Study Tips
Insane stat: Every Iowa State loss since February 27th, 2023 has come away from home.
Arizona State has scored over 70 points against a top 50 KenPom opponent once this season in nine tries (80 vs Gonzaga, Nov. 10th).
ASU starter Adam Miller (9.4 PPG) is on his third school in four seasons (Illinois, LSU, ASU).
Both of these teams play pretty short benches.
Those are the five biggest games I’m monitoring over the course of Saturday. My honorable mentions:
UNLV vs New Mexico
Lobos need this win if they want to stay in contention for the Mountain West regular season title. Haven’t beaten UNLV since March 5th, 2022.
Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee
Middle also desperately needs this win to stay on track to win the CUSA. Tech favored to win by four according to KenPom.
Akron vs Miami OH
The Zips play a really fun, high tempo brand of basketball. They’ve started MAC play HOT. Xavier transfer Kam Craft (15.2 PPG) has been excellent for a Miami team that has won eight straight.
Kansas vs Houston
The Jayhawks are the most experienced team in the country led by one of if not the best coach.They have lost four confusing games and could very well lose a fifth to Houston, who’s playing about as good as you can defensively right now.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
Commodores are coming off of a massive upset of Tennessee. Kentucky coming off of home loss to Alabama. Both teams fly up and down the floor. ‘Dores should have the edge here due to specifics in style of play.
Nevada vs San Diego State
If you’re not watching this Mountain West showdown at 9 PM CT, I don’t know what to tell you. No better way to cap off the weekend slate than with a Quad 1 Mid Major game.
Kansas State vs West Virginia
Would be a bad loss on WVU’s tournament resume. Not a great start to conference play either. Can’t take a Q2 loss here.
Troy vs South Alabama
South looks like the best team in the Sun Belt right now and is firmly projected to win the league. Only projected to win by three here.
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh
I don’t know why, but I’m actively rooting for Syracuse to be good again. This would be a step in the right direction. Their roster is too talented to be 9-10.
Florida vs Georgia
Gators haven’t been playing great ball as of late. Tough matchup because of Georgia’s physicality.
Study Answers
(St. John’s - 248 mins.)
(Kentucky, 2014-15 - +36.91)
(1/31/2017 - 87-77)
(2020-21 season)